Florida’s long-running debate over adult-use cannabis is resurfacing, and the stakes for Florida’s largest multistate operators (MSOs) are enormous. After the 2024 legalization measure, Amendment 3, failed to meet the state’s 60% threshold—reporting roughly 56% support—advocates regrouped, even as public markets punished cannabis stocks tied to the outcome. A subsequent federal court ruling this month cleared the way for a fresh 2026 ballot push by loosening a state restriction on initiative campaigns, reviving expectations that adult-use could still arrive within the next cycle.

The commercial implications hinge on who gets to sell and how quickly. The prior initiative text would have allowed existing Medical Marijuana Treatment Centers (MMTCs) to participate in adult-use sales, with room for additional state-licensed entities—a structure that would favor incumbents with scale and capital. If a similar framework advances, three companies are positioned to move first.

Trulieve remains the bellwether. The Tallahassee-based operator entered 2025 with the state’s largest footprint and, by January, led Florida with about 40% of flower unit sales—an advantage that would translate swiftly if medical storefronts are permitted to convert or co-locate for adult-use. Trulieve lists more than 160 Florida dispensaries, giving it unmatched proximity to consumers across a geographically sprawling market.

Curaleaf and Verano (operating as MÜV) round out the scale tier. Curaleaf’s latest opening in St. Augustine brought its Florida count to 68 locations in 2025, reinforcing coverage in key coastal and suburban corridors. Verano has steadily expanded MÜV, reaching 80–81 Florida stores this year—another network capable of rapid SKU deployment, delivery expansion, and pricing moves the moment adult-use rules are finalized.

Second-tier players could still find daylight. AYR’s continued in-state investment—including a new Miami location—signals a strategy to densify urban demand centers ahead of any crossover. Cansortium’s Fluent brand, meanwhile, has pressed steady Florida expansion (mid-30s locations heading into 2025), and could lean into value pricing and localized merchandising to defend share against giants.

Policy design remains the swing factor. Amendment 3’s defeat delayed the near-term catalyst and underscored the political difficulty of clearing 60%, but it did not eliminate Florida’s outsized potential. Analysts and data firms had pegged first-year adult-use sales around $4.9–$6.1 billion—illustrating why MSOs poured tens of millions into the last campaign and why another try is underway. Whether the eventual rulebook caps store counts, opens wholesale access, or stages licensing for new entrants will determine if incumbents keep a decisive lead or if competition broadens.

In the interim, operators face a maturing medical market with slower growth and heavier promotion—conditions that encourage cost discipline, loyalty investment, and selective cultivation upgrades as they wait for a new ballot window. Florida lawmakers didn’t advance 2025 bills that might have offered relief at the margin, keeping the regulatory status quo intact until voters get another say.

Bottom line: if adult-use ultimately passes, scale MSOs—Trulieve, Curaleaf, and Verano—start from pole position on stores, brands, and distribution. Yet a rule set that widens participation could enable mid-tier operators such as AYR and Fluent to carve out defensible lanes, keeping Florida’s eventual adult-use market both large and competitive.